Commodities Drop On Us Dollars Surge

Oil, corn, gold, copper and silver tumbled, sending commodity markets to a four-month low, as the US dollar jumped in theories that slower economic growth would erode demand for raw materials.

Seeing that the US economy has been sluggish now for nine months and other economies have been starting to slow, that theory is a bit hard to take.


The real driver is the switch from commodities and commodity company shares to the US dollar for many big global investors who are searching for returns.

The drop in oil prices has seen the prices of car companies and airlines rise sharply across the world, despite still sluggish earnings and forecasts of little improvement into 2009.

The key, as always, to the commodity story is China, and while the late onboard analysts for the China growth story are now worried that the economy is slowing, it's all relative.

Chinese economic growth is running at a conservative 10%, inflation is easing and despite concerns there have been no 'pro-growth' policies announced by the Chinese government, there's no real sign of any sluggishness.

Yes, factories are closing and yes, there are labour shortages, but compared to what's happening in the US, Europe and even Australia, it's still a boom.

Eeven if China 'slows' to a 5% growth rate at some stage, it will still be growing five times faster than the US or Euirope.

Now there are fears Europe is joining the US in slowing: at this rate Britain and the eurozone will beat the US economy into a contraction, if it's race anyone wants to win.

There are inflation fears in Europe and countries like Australia from the falling value of the currency against the US, while it should help the emerging belief in America that inflation will trend downwards over the rest of 2008.

But the danger is that the rapid rise in the value of the greenback will deliver a very sharp jolt to the only part of the economy doing well: the export sector, which has been dragging the rest of the economy along the bottom of the trough and keeping it out of recession since the contraction in growth back in the December quarter of last year.

The rapid upward move by the greenback last week, and especially Friday flattened the prices of many commodities.

Oil fell to the lowest since May, corn tumbled to a four-month low and silver touched its cheapest since January. Copper had its biggest fall since May 2007 and gold its longest losing streak since 2006.

The US dollar had its biggest increase in almost eight years against the euro.

Crude oil fell $US4.82, or 4%, Friday to $US115.20 a barrel in New York. Traders said the price touched $US114.62, the lowest since May 2. Oil has dropped 22% from the record $US147.27 on July 11.

Corn fell to the lowest price since March 20, and soybeans also dropped to a four-month low as the dollar climbed. Wheat was weak, falling 6.7% alone on Friday.

Since reaching records this year, corn has tumbled 35% and soybeans are down 28%. Wheat prices have almost halved since the highs of early February.

December corn fell 23.75 USc, or 4.4%, to $US5.1825 a bushell on the Chicago Board of Trade, November soybean fell 58.5 USc, or 4.7%, to $US11.805 a bushell, after touching $11.735 and wheat dropped 56.75 USc or 6.7% to $US7.925 a bushell.

Gold fell for the sixth straight session, the longest slide since June 2006, as the euro slumped. Silver dropped almost 6%.

December gold fell $US13.10, or 1.5%, to $US864.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the Nymex. The price dropped 6.3% in the six trading sessions to last Friday.

September silver futures shed a huge 92.7 USc, or 5.7%, to $US15.33 an ounce.

Copper lost 2.5% or 8.5USc a pound on Friday to $US3.3330 a pound, to complete the biggest weekly drop since May 2007 while aluminum, nickel, tin, lead and zinc also dropped in London.

Three month LME copper fell $US223, or 2.9%, to $US7,442 a tonne on Friday: prices have dropped 12% since June.

Coffee, cocoa and sugar also weakened among the agriculturals .

Palm oil in Malaysia posted a fifth weekly loss as the falls in crude oil and soybeans reduced demand for the commodity as a substitute in fuel and cooking. Palm oil futures hit a nine month low last week.

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By: Australasian Investment Review

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